Trump needs Florida to win

Flickr / The White House

Florida is set to be one of the biggest political battlegrounds in this election. A victory in Florida could secure Trump the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to win the election. Billionaire Bloomberg’s massive injection of cash at this late stage is a game-changer.

It’s a Mike drop! 😃

— Jude8529🇺🇸 (@Bookmeister54) September 13, 2020

While recent polls show Biden to be ahead of Trump overall by 7.5 percentage points, he leads by the most narrow margin in Florida — a mere 1.2 percentage points. This has dipped from a July lead of 8.4, making Florida of critical importance.

One nominee to another

Flickr / Phil Roeder

Bloomberg ran as a Democratic presidential candidate for 2020. After investing $1 billion into his campaign, he dropped out of the race in March and swiftly endorsed Biden. By focusing his efforts on helping Biden win in Florida, he frees up the Democratic party to concentrate on other states’ campaign funding.

Kevin Sheekey is Bloomberg’s senior advisor. He stated:

Mike’s substantial investment in Florida, in addition to his contributions to the DNC and voter protection and restoration efforts this cycle, will mean Democrats and the Biden campaign can invest even more heavily in other key states like Pennsylvania, which will be critical to a Biden victory.

Flipping Florida

Screenshot / Time

Florida could make or break this election. A curveball state, neither the Republican party nor the Democrats show any significant lead in the polls. Florida is traditionally Republican, though not by a confident margin. The polls show Biden doing better than Hilary Clinton did in 2016, but he lacks support among Hispanic voters.

The Republican party has been campaigning hard among Latino voters, but the Biden campaign will need to focus their efforts on this community to flip the state blue.

Trump’s confidence is beginning to crack

Screenshot / Twitter

The Trump campaign is publicly confident that they will win Florida in November. Trump’s actions tell a different story, however. The President has already moved his legal residence to Florida. Trump has many properties in the Sunshine State, including his favorite haunt, the Mar-o-Lago golf resort.

I thought Mini Mike was through with Democrat politics after spending almost 2 Billion Dollars, and then giving the worst and most inept Debate Performance in the history of Presidential Politics. Pocahontas ended his political career on first question, OVER! Save NYC instead. https://t.co/WgbVvEUt2N

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 13, 2020

The billionaire’s announcement would be investing $100 million of his fortune into securing a Biden victory came on Saturday. Shortly afterward, Trump began tweeting about “Mini Mike” (Bloomberg), suggesting the news had rattled him.

You guys know how critical Florida is in this election?

trump can't win WITHOUT it.

And Mike Bloomberg is pouring $100M into Florida to help Joe Biden win there. BOOMITY.

— BrooklynDad_Defiant! (@mmpadellan) September 13, 2020

Trump is losing his retirees base

Canva

Republican retirees are beginning to swap their Trump signs for “BIDEN 2020.” In 2016, it was the over-65 demographic that voted overwhelmingly for Trump. Four years later, many former supporters are disenfranchised by the President’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Trump’s decision to prioritize the economy over health and safety has been literally deadly for many of Florida’s senior residents. The pandemic has exposed both the health vulnerabilities of this demographic and their worsening retirement prospects under Donald Trump.

“Trump is killing us!”

— a 73-year-old Florida woman who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Joe Biden.

“I could catch an infection and die,” she told the NYT. “And he knew about it, he admitted it.”https://t.co/lHcxt83GK6

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 14, 2020

The curveball state

Flickr / JD Lasica

Florida is famously difficult to predict. Twenty years ago, the infamous 537 votes in Florida lost Al Gore the election and sent George W. Bush to the White House.

Early voting in Florida begins on the 24th of September. Bloomberg’s spending plan is predicted to be mainly on television and online advertising. Republicans are currently spending around $8 million more than Democrats on digital advertising.

I was thinking about Al Gore the other day. I think Florida missed the boat on that one. Those shenanigans made me sick to my stomach.

— Cindy (@CTGreive) September 12, 2020

Democrat’s ‘nightmare scenario’

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All eyes will be on Florida this November. Unlike many other states, Florida will only report its early votes and absentee ballots on election nights. One possible election scenario is that Trump should be in the lead until the (mostly Democrat) mail-in votes are counted, pushing Biden to a victory.

Some Democrats fear a “nightmare scenario” in which Trump cries “fraud” and argues against counting the postal votes.

In Florida, over 480,000 more Democrats have requested absentee ballots than Republicans, while in North Carolina, over 260,000 more Democrats have requested absentee ballots than Republicans. But work remains!

— Paige Price 🇺🇲 🇬🇧 (@KeepCalmResist) September 13, 2020

‘If the President doesn’t win in Florida, he doesn’t win’

Flickr / Gage Skidmore

Both Biden and Trump need Florida. Al Cardenas is the former chair of the Republican party in Florida. He put it best to NBC News:

“Frankly . . . if the President doesn’t win Florida, he doesn’t win.”

Let’s hope Bloomberg puts his $100 million where his mouth is.

We can all help. Take a GOTV shift this week, from wherever you are.https://t.co/sQ0gmDkNHo

— Erik Halvorsen (@erikhalvorsen18) September 13, 2020